The crypto market was up most of the month, though fell off a bit at the end. Mostly it was the $5T of global M2 liquidity from Q1 continuing to be deployed in markets. All macro metrics were in the green at month’s end. Tariffs and the trade war still affect markets short-term, though we expect upward moves in the crypto market throughout the summer based on liquidity trends (unless this correlation changes).
Summary
May was up for the most part. Some highlights:
Altcoins are outperforming: L1 assets up 12%; AI-theme assets are up +20% on average; DeFi up +7% on average for the month. DeFi added to TVL (total value locked) in May to $120b from $105b
We forecasted global M2 liquidity to continue to effect asset prices in May, which happened, that trend continued from April. We expect it should continue through June.
Trade war / tariffs can still affect asset prices short-term for days perhaps a week, but not medium-term or long-term.
In May, we printed our 2nd month with falling growth and rising inflation forecast – this means the 2nd “Fall” print in our Economic Seasons model. Fall typically lasts 9 months, so we’re re-affirming our February 2026 peak bull model.
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